Ken Paxton Senate Race: Polls, Candidates, and the Road to 2026
The upcoming Texas Senate race is rapidly becoming one of the most talked-about political contests in the nation. As Attorney General Ken Paxton thrusts himself into the spotlight, the stakes are high for Republicans hoping to maintain their grip on the state and Democrats seeking their first Senate win in Texas in decades. In this article, we’ll look at the recent polls, analyze the key players, and explain why the Ken Paxton Senate campaign is drawing so much national attention.
Polls Show Paxton With an Early Lead
Recent polling has transformed the conversation about the Texas Senate race. According to a CBS Texas report, Ken Paxton leads incumbent Senator John Cornyn by a striking 16 percentage points in the GOP primary. The numbers—Paxton at 56% and Cornyn at 40%—surprised many political observers and have intensified discussions within the Republican Party.
However, the same poll indicates that in a potential general election matchup, Paxton currently trails Democratic hopeful Colin Allred by one percentage point. This raises concerns among GOP strategists about retaining the seat if Paxton becomes the nominee. Notably, when Houston-area Congressman Wesley Hunt enters a hypothetical three-way race, Paxton’s lead narrows, showing how fluid the situation remains.
Internal GOP Battles and Rising Tensions
The internal struggle is not just about polling numbers—it reflects deep divisions within Texas’s Republican Party. As described in an analysis by Yahoo News, some Republicans fear that a contentious primary could weaken their Senate campaign in the general election. With Cornyn representing the establishment and Paxton drawing strong support from the party’s far-right, the outcome is far from certain.
Adding to the drama are public sparring sessions on social media and direct quotes from Cornyn, who cautioned, "The last thing we need to do is provide an opportunity for Democrats to get a beachhead in Texas." Paxton, meanwhile, has not hesitated to push back, mocking his opponents and rallying conservative voters.
A Historic Opportunity for Texas Democrats?
Democrats haven’t won a Senate seat in Texas for several decades, but early signs suggest the 2026 election could be different. As highlighted by Newsweek, Democratic candidates like Colin Allred are polling closely against likely Republican opponents. This competitiveness is unusual in deep-red Texas and puts extra pressure on the GOP to unite around a candidate who can win statewide.
The Role of Endorsements and New Entrants
One wildcard is whether former President Donald Trump will endorse Paxton or another candidate. Trump remains popular with Texas primary voters, and his support could be a decisive factor. There’s also speculation about other Republicans, such as Rep. Wesley Hunt, entering the race, which could further split the vote and change the dynamics overnight.
Conclusion: All Eyes on the Ken Paxton Senate Race
The Ken Paxton Senate race promises to be one of the most consequential elections in recent Texas history. With intra-party disputes, shifting poll numbers, and national attention, the outcome remains highly uncertain. Voters and pundits alike are watching closely as Texas sets the stage for a dramatic and possibly historic Senate showdown in 2026. Stay tuned and follow the latest developments to see which candidate will secure the nomination and whether Texas will remain a red state or become the site of a major political upset.